In part:

So what does all that mean for a potentially divided GOP in those Florida and California Senate races? It isn’t good.

The community types heavily represented in Florida and California could present real problems for Republicans if conservatives split the vote or force the eventual nominee to lean further right.

The east coast of Florida has densely populated “Monied ’Burbs” and Latino-heavy “Immigration Nation” counties. Both of those community types went for Obama in 2008. Tampa, as well as north of Tampa, contains a lot of diversifying “Boom Town” counties. Those places tend to lean Republican, but they also tend to be more moderate and could be put off by a divisive fight.

In California, the terrain is much tougher. The biggest chunks of the state’s population live in the big-city “Industrial Metropolis” and “Monied ’Burb” counties. Those places went heavily for Obama in 2008. The GOP might have a chance at winning those counties if it has a very moderate candidate and the economy is poor. Even in that scenario, the fight would be difficult. But a conservative Republican nominee would probably make it all but impossible.

The point of the community types in Patchwork Nation is to show that different types of places are motivated by different issues and ideas. Political views that work well in, say, Nixa, Mo. – our socially conservative “Evangelical Epicenter” – are very different from those that sell in Eagle, Colo., our “Boom Town.” We’ve chronicled such differences for almost two years now.

Then again, for many Republicans, the fight is over the party’s soul, not over winning seats in Congress. And applying more of a one-size-fits-all approach may help clarify a party’s identity."